Posted by
Patrick Bohan on Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:42:02 AM
Two weeks ago Obama distanced himself from the Virginia governor race claiming Creigh Deeds was not heeding to the campaign strategy outlined by the White House and the Democratic National Committee. Obama won Virginia last year by 6.3 points (52.7% to 46.4%), which incidentally was very close to the national average by which Obama defeated McCain. Thus, we can safely assume that Virginia is the one state that is demographically representative of the entire country. And this is obviously the reason Obama wants to distance himself from this race is because Republican Bob McDonnell defeated Democrat Creigh Deeds by 18 points (This is a change in public opinion of nearly 24% in just one year). After all, this result would not only tarnish Obama’s ego, but his public image if it is viewed that his popularity has declined at such an alarming rate. It is a wise strategy by the White House to attempt to deflect a negative election result. But I severely doubt any sane Americans will buy this election result was not a referendum on the Obama Presidency because this was not the only bad news for Obama during this election.
Another important governor election took place in New Jersey between Republican Chris Christie, Democrat Jon Corzine, and Independent Chris Daggett. New Jersey is a very liberal state and Obama won it last year by 14.7 points (56.8% to 42.1%), meaning 4 out of every 7 voters went for Obama. Once again, it is a new year, and Christie defeated Corzine by 4 points. The result is a 19 point turn around from last year and this does not include that Daggett took more votes from Christie than Corzine.
In up state New York there was a special election to replace Representative John McHugh, who resigned to become Obama’s Secretary of the Army. Obama won this historically conservative district by about 5 points last year. This was an interesting race between three candidates: Democrat Bill Owens, Republican Dede Scozzafava, and independent Doug Hoffman. Dede Scozzafava came under attack by many Republican leaders during the final month leading up to the election for being too liberal. Hence, conservatives began backing independent Doug Hoffman and his campaign gained traction over the final weeks. As Scozzafava’s support diminished she suspended her campaign the final week and surprisingly endorsed the Democrat Bill Owens. This may have been because Owens ideology was closer to hers or it could have been out of vengeance due to the lack of support from the Republican Party. In any event, this was not good news for Hoffman and decreased his chances. Thus, Owens defeated Hoffman by 4 points. If we include the 6 points that Scozzafava received, then this election was only a 7 point turn around from last year. This should be a message to conservatives and the GOP that only the Democrats win when there is infighting and a power struggle. Hopefully, they will learn their lesson and not employ this losing strategy next year.
The above results are clearly a referendum on how well the public has approved of the job done by the Obama administration thus far. Think about it, these election results consistently show about a 20 point change in public opinion, which incidentally correlates to how much Obama’s popularity decreased over the past year (from around 70% to 50%). Democrats will argue that these numbers are not indicative of Obama’s popularity since turnout was low. However, Obama campaigned hard for these candidates and the Democrats had a massive cash advantage and this failed to get the voter turnout they needed. But the Democrats can be thankful that the inept GOP strategy in New York gained them a House seat.
It is ironic how Obama campaigned for “change” from the status quo, but during this election cycle he changed his tune to campaign for the status quo. This is especially odd in New Jersey where the combination corruption, taxes, and unemployment are arguably the worst in the nation. Americans and New Jersey citizens were not going to be fooled a second time by Obama’s charm and orator skills.
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